iPhone Duo: What the analysts think
IDC analyst, Francisco Jeronimo shared a series of great points following Apple’s big launch September 9.
First he noted that price hasn’t changed that much, but more importantly stressed that with the iPhone Duo, “Apple showed up years after everyone else, yet it walks in and sets the rules. Apple entered the foldable market and, in one keynote, set the price and the standard every rival will now be measured against.”
He also said, “Other vendors spent years teaching consumers what a foldable is. Apple’s opportunity is to teach hundreds of millions of iPhone users why they finally need one.”
He also pointed out that with the unchanged prices around Apple Watch and AirPods, those products become “effective loyalty programs”.
IDC forecasts worldwide foldable value to grow at a 20.6% CAGR between 2026 to 2030. Unit shipments grow from 20.3 million in 2025 to 22.9 million in 2026. IDC forecasts approximately 10 million iPhone Duo units and $27 billion in revenue in the first 12 months after launch, to become the largest foldable vendor in 2027.
But for him, the real test of Apple’s new approach wil be in China, where Huawei owns almost 80% of the foldable market. Can Apple convert some of these customers?
Elsewhere on Wall Street
Francisco’s positive slant seems to have been matched across the analyst community. Steet consensus is a buy with a $335.87 price target, and while some have higher expectations those with much lower targets are lonely in their view.
- Citi calls the Duo the biggest new hardware category since Apple Watch and AirPods. It pointed to the importance of Siri AI across all the new products, and observed how Apple is moving toward agentic AI.
- TD Cowen warns “Price increases were modest, which aids affordability, but hardware general margins could face more headwinds in the coming year.”
- Bernstein noted, “these lower price increases on entry models should help Apple continue to gain market share over Android rivals.”
- Morgan Stanley noted that Apple’s integrated hardware and software and the role of Siri AI in making the iPhone an intelligent hub will boost the company.
- At Goldman Sachs, analysts praised the decision to split the iPhone release cycle across two events saying this should support ASP growth.
- JP Morgan pointed to the $100 price increases on iPhone as a positive, arguing that Apple’s decision balances component costs against sales volume. Apple “walks the fine balance” of absorbing memory costs while keeping the opportunity for a positive volume cycle. UBS takes a similar approach.
- BoFA also looked at prices which were lower than the firm had anticipated and pointed out that the new CEO, John Ternus, is focused on core values.
- While concerned about supply availability, Oppenheimer expects Apple’s device will become “the most successful foldable phone on the market”.
- Laura Martin at Needham focused on new CEO, John Ternus. She likes his style, saying the company needs a “Wartime CEO” as it grapples with the challenges of AI.
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