Apple gains share as smartphone biz endures RAM-ageddon slowdown
Weighed down by war and RAM-ageddon, Counterpoint expects global smartphone shipments to fall 14.3% YoY in 2026. Market conditions are expected to remain challenging in 2027, with shipments to decline by a further 1.4% before recovery begins in 2028.
Apple, Samsung, and Huawei
The analysts expect Apple and Samsung to lead the industry, with Samsing regaining lead. Apple will outperform the market, but higher pricing and a staggered launch cadence will constrain its shipment outlook, while Chinese OEMs face shipment declines between 15% to 34% in 2026.
The downturn is being driven primarily by supply chain and cost pressures, mainly impacting the mass market which is seeing steep price increases, reduced margins, reduction in product offers and eventual consolidation.
What the analyst expects
Principal Analyst Yang Wang commented, “The 2026 decline reflects more than temporarily weak demand. Higher component costs are pushing manufacturers to remove products and configurations that are no longer economically viable, particularly at lower price points. Although supply visibility should improve during 2027, affordability will recover more slowly because higher cost inventory must first move through the channel. As such, we expect the market to remain under pressure in 2027 before rebounding more strongly in 2028.”
The outlook for Apple
Apple shipments are forecast to decline by approximately 2.1% in 2026, before returning to growth of around 2.8% in 2027. The company is buoyed by its premium market position, customer loyalty, and more recently introduced financing arrangements. All the same, anticipated price increase may dent share slightly.
Counterpoint predicts high-single-digit million unit sales for Apple’s first foldable device and says it will build an important foundation for the company in the coming years.
Samsung smartphone shipments are forecast to grow by approximately 0.8% in 2026, significantly outperforming the wider market’s decline. Huawei remains an important exception. Huawei shipments are forecast to grow by approximately 8% in 2026 and a further 4.3% in 2027. More here.
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