Morgan Stanley says Apple will ‘surpass’ positive iPhone 17 expectation
More positive analyst sentiment concerning iPhone shipments, this time from Erik Woodring at Morgan Stanley, who believes Apple will “surpass” even the most recent positive expectations. He also sees strong upside in the year ahead.
The main thing is that the analyst sees strong pre-order data and notes that lead times for the products is increasing. The thing is, iPhone sales don’t happen in isolation and tend to boost App Store and attached device sales.
Watch for these catalysts
Pending Apple’s Q4 fiscal call next week, the analyst maintains a positive $298 price target, but warns investors to pay attention to a series of catalysts, including :
- US carrier commentary on wireless upgrades,
- iPhone sell through in China on the legendary 11/11 ‘singles day’ shopping event,
- Apple Intelligence in China,
- The success or otherwise of Apple’s iPhone fold and contextual Siri announcements next year.
Component suppliers suggest 95m iPhone sales
Woodring also noted some good data points to suggest strong iPhone sales, particularly word from component suppliers that suggest iPhone 17 builds of up to 95m – ahead of the original 90m estimate.
He observed strong sales in China – sales of iPhone 17 models on Tmall during the first hour of Double 11 sales “exceed the entirety of last year’s first full day Double 11 sales in China,” he said. The iPhone Air also sold out in China within hours. India is a growing market. Woodring suggests double digit year on year growth of sales in iPhone 17 in comparison to iPhone 16 there last year.
Predictions
- “Based on these data points, we are raising our September quarter iPhone shipment forecast by 2M units to 56.9M units (flat Y/Y), 5% above Street forecasts,” he said, noting demand momentum should sustain in the coming months
- He also predicts Apple’s Services revenue will grow faster than consensus into the December quarter. “We believe Apple remains well-positioned to gain share in the PC market,” he also said.
- For the September Quarter, the analyst predicts revenue of around $102.1b, with December expected to give at $130.8B.
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