iPhone: An economic shift in two continents

Crowds came to the opening of Apple’s first retail store in India

I’ve been saying for some time that the economic shift that’s taking place globally means some established markets will shrink while some new markets will shine. That’s what we’re seeing through the lens of iPhone sales, as the US market declines, India’s market is increasing, and Apple plays a strong game in both.

Doom and data points

This isn’t speculation, it’s a data-driven analysis based on two reports from Counterpoint.

• In the first report, the analysts note that US smartphone shipments declined 8% yoy, the sixth quarter of decline.
• In the second, they note that India’s smartphone market grew 8% yoy (by value).

Both data points are significant, and suggest shrinkage in one market and growth in another.

Of course, spur to that growth may be the relatively lower penetration rates (particularly for high end phones) between the two populations – but you’d have to be blind to ignore the rapid emergence of new economic blocs at this time. Consent is everything and it’s possible that this economic divergence will have even more impact over time.

So, where’s Apple in this?

For Apple the song remains the same. It has 52% of the US smartphone market and has now achieved 19% of India’s smartphone market by value. The latter is down from 22% a few years ago, but as the market itself has grown 8% across that time the actual numbers may not be so dramatically different. Those iPhones are popular in India, even though Samsung still leads there.

India is a growing market

India’s premium segment (>INR 30,000) reached 20% volume share, its highest ever, and 51% value share of the overall Indian smartphone market in Q1 2024.Senior Research Analyst Shilpi Jain said in a statement, “According to Counterpoint’s Consumer Lens survey, more than one-third of mid-tier consumers are willing to upgrade to the premium segment. Factors driving this trend include affordable financing schemes, better value for trade-ins, and bundled schemes, along with the demand for top-tier features such as AI, gaming, and imaging enhancements.”

Back in the USA

“US smartphone shipments declined 8% YoY in Q1 2024, according to Counterpoint Research’s Market Monitor data. This was primarily due to stronger Q1 2023 shipments following COVID-19-related factory closures that pushed Apple shipments from Q4 2022 into Q1 of last year,” the analyst said.

“Carriers saw declining upgrade rates and equipment revenues again in Q1 2024, showcasing the continued weak demand for smartphones in the market. Shipments were down YoY, with most of the decline being driven by an unfavorable YoY comparison due to iPhone 14 Pro and Pro Max launch quarter shipments being realized in Q1 2023,” said Jeff Fieldhack, Counterpoint’s Research Director for North America. “However, Apple maintained a healthy market share of 52% in the quarter as sub-$300 Android shipments saw declines.”

In truth of course the actual dollar value of these changes means India isn’t yet compensating for softening business in the ‘States, but the direction of travel remains pretty visible. Apple really is putting other BRICS in its walls.

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