Apple’s AR Reality won’t ship till summer/fall, says analyst

Until they do, these remain the best Apple spectacles

If the latest set of Tweets from mystery Apple analyst, Ming-Chi Kuo is to be believed, it seems possible Apple will introduce its first generation mixed reality goggles later this year. Possibly at WWDC in June, but also potentially later.

A rose tinted spectacle?

In his most recent communique, the analyst claims the new product won’t arrive this month as he’d originally anticipated, but in spring or summer. He claims this is because development is behind schedule due to “issues” with drop testing and the availability of software development tools.

“As a result, it is increasingly unlikely that Apple will hold a media event for the new device in January. At this point, it seems more likely that Apple will announce the AR/MR headset at a spring media event or WWDC based on the current development progress,” he writes.

In previous missives he’s explained the importance of the release to major optical suppliers for Apple’s headsets, who at that time included Largan (lens), Pancake Lenses, Cowell Electronics (camera module), Primus (eye tracking module).

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Apple's AR/MR headset development is behind schedule due to issues with mechanical component drop testing and the availability of software development tools, meaning that mass shipment of this device may postpone from the original 2Q23 to the end of 2Q23 or 3Q23. https://t.co/YitWBWxbRI

— 郭明錤 (Ming-Chi Kuo) (@mingchikuo) January 6, 2023

Who are these suppliers?

Largan, some may recall, provides voice coil motors for the focusing of cameras on iPhones, and recently reported a 23 month sales record on strength of smartphones. Pancake makes a high end lens which is critical to the device while Cowell Electronics(part of Luxshare) makes camera modules for iPhones. Primus likely makes the eye tracking module tech Apple patented in or before 2021.

The analyst has also predicted first year sales of around half a million units of the device, which at $3,000 a pop may be hard to reach, I think. All the same, it does now appear as if Apple won’t be introducing the new product until it has potentially built a production line somewhere new.

I also find it interesting to cite Philip Elmer-DeWitt, who notes: “Kuo, whose reports from Apple’s supply chain border on industrial espionage, has never been particularly good at timing.”

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