Apple Q2 iPhone shipments stable, but down – Canalys

Apple felt the pain of tariffs and trade wars more than most of its peers in the smartphone industry in Q2 2025, claims Canalys, presumably reflecting its exposure to tensions in (and between) the US and China.

The data reveals that the global smartphone market declined by 1% year on year in Q2 2025, marking the industry’s first decline in six quarters. Apple’s market, however declined more at 2%.

The marginal shipment drop reflects stable vendor performances amid modest consumer sentiment and rising uncertainties and volatility in the global macroeconomic environment.

What the analysts said

“Despite a market slowdown in Q2, driven by the fading replacement wave of pandemic-era devices and continued weak consumer demand, most vendors delivered stable and resilient performances,” said Runar Bjørhovde, Senior Analyst at Canalys.

“Vendors are closely aligning operational efficiency prioritizations and tactical wins with scale. Many vendors had greater aspirations in Q2 but were forced to cut their production targets to avoid excess inventory. The exception was in the US, where major uncertainties around tariff policies and timelines from the Trump administration have encouraged vendors such as Apple, Samsung and Motorola (Lenovo) to maintain high inventory levels and frontload devices throughout the quarter. These are key operational tactics needed to navigate a complicated geopolitical and regulatory maze.”

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Shoppers get more price curious

“After a slow start to 2025, vendors are now well placed and ready to navigate what is expected to be a flat year for the smartphone market,” said Amber Liu, Practice Lead for Smartphone Research at Canalys (now part of Omdia).

“Many consumers who delayed purchases in the first half of 2025 are anticipated to buy during the major shopping festivals and events toward the end of the year. Effective pricing and clever promotions are as important as ever for vendor success, as shown by Huawei’s and Apple’s reception during China’s 618 shopping festival in May. Recent launch events have highlighted slimmer designs, ecosystem innovation and privacy protection narratives to tempt consumers to upgrade. But price-conscious consumers looking for a good deal to replace their old devices will be the main demand driver. Additionally, current healthy inventory levels in the channel will allow a boost to the replenishment of recently launched devices, which will help the industry return to growth in the second half of the year.”

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