Flight of the iPhones: T-Mobile says iPhone 16 is selling fast

A pile of iPhone 12’s getting ready for air freight – will iPhone 16 match this?

Yeah sure we’ve read the annual claims that iPhone sales seem slack, but as per usual those speculations are usually based on data extrapolated from across specific geographies, sometimes in the absence of any information from carrier deals. So, what’s happening at the carriers?

T-Mobile US CEO, Mike Sievert, has broken cover to tell us iPhones are selling fast.

T-Mobile: iPhone 16 is selling at great rate

“The first week was better than last year,” he said, telling CNBC’s Jim Cramer that the iPhone 16 range is outperforming last year’s device on sales. He also confirmed that, despite reports to the contrary, at T-Mobile at least customers continue to purchase higher-end devices.

“People are buying Pros, they’re buying Max’, so they’re buying up the food chain and they’re buying at a greater rate than last year,” he said.

He’s referring to pre-orders, of course, as the device won’t reach retail until September 20. It’s also of potential importance to note that the Big Feature of these devices – Apple Intelligence – isn’t expected to become a viable ‘thing’ until October 2024, when the first tools ship, most likely alongside new Macs.

AI with everything (including a little consideration)

That’s when Apple will demonstrate the platform integration it has created, crafting the world’s first (and most private and secure) AI ecosystem.

Not bad for a company we keep being told is “behind” on AI, usually by those complacent to the horrible dystopia unconstrained AI introduction ushers in, as right-leaning autocrats use AI to further narrow the Overton window that reflects their choices. Even down to image editing. Those harbingers really just think Apple is behind on horror.

I think that’s a good thing.

But rant around the dangers of unconstrained AI deployment aside, Apple has clearly sold a plane full of iPhones.

Flights of the iPhones

Did I say a plane full? It’s actually several planes as you can see courtesy of Flight Aware, which has built a widget that lets those lucky enough to have pre-ordered an iPhone watch their devices as they get flown in. You can watch all those planes, each likely carrying millions of dollars in iPhone stock, right here.

Meanwhile in the background all the usual things are happening. Some analysts are saying iPhones aren’t selling well, industry watchers are doing their usual amplification of the same sentiment “talk of an AI-driven supercycle may be overrated” they murmur as they lay the ground for surprise strong sales stories later down the line.

What the analysts are saying

Analysts frequently use iPhone lead times (how long you must wait for one to get to you) as a data point for their analysis. Morgan Stanley analyst Erik Woodring yesterday told clients that iPhone 16 lead times have doubled from last Friday, and are longer internationally than in the US, but says these are still tracking lower than before.

While this information is a good insight into how the product will perform across the next year, says Woodring, his analysis suggests iPhone 16 is selling only a little less well than the iPhone 12, which delivered the second-strongest sales cycle in the last decade.

“Average iPhone 16 lead times from pre-order to today stand at 10.9 days, falling between the iPhone 12 (the second-strongest cycle in the last decade) at 10.4 days and the iPhone 11 (the second-weakest cycle in the last decade) at 13.9 days, indicating it’s still too early to determine the true strength of iPhone 16 shipments,” Morgan Stanley said.

What do you believe?

Meanwhile in Cupertino…

Meanwhile at Apple, where the data really exists, marketing is probably wondering how to side-step all these media gatekeepers and rekindle that strong connection with people the brand has traditionally always enjoyed.

In this age we’re stressed, poor, untrusting and utterly disappointed in the actions of our governments. For most of us, optimism has been smashed to smithereens. If ever the world needed an ‘iMac’ moment, this is it. It may be time to rip up the communication formular and rewrite it for a new age.

We will likely gain the first insight into Apple’s actual iPhone sales performance during the company’s next fiscal call, which usually takes place late October/early November. iPhone revenue in that quarter last year set a new record, if Sievert is right, it should achieve about the same results again. If Woodring is right, then it should achieve slightly softer results, and yet still generated multiple tens of billions of dollars for its bottom line – and build the world’s biggest mass market platform for AI at the same time.

The roll of the dice

With all this in mind, I’m not spectacularly concerned. The iPhones are in flight, and industry watchers everywhere (at least those who care about things) are unwittingly quoting Shakespeare as they murmur words to this effect: “O Heaven! That one might read the book of fate and see the revolution of the times.”

Or at least glean an accurate assessment of iPhone 16 sales.

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