Cheaper RAM is coming, at least outside America
The market power of the Big Three memory vendors seems set to feel challenge from China as CXMT and YMTC are about to expand manufacturing capacity, financed by their recent IPOs.
While this isn’t a short term solution, in the long-term it’s a move that could free up consumer electronics memory supply, which has been deeply limited by business decisions made by the Big Three.
Life through a lens
Through a US lens, it makes little difference.
It is unlikely that anything more complex than commodity memory from these makers will be included in products made in the USA, but the world is far bigger than America, and as digital transformation emerges across global economies the upstart Chinese suppliers likely see a world of opportunity supplying memory to markets where consumers won’t feel the RAM tax.
We’re seeing the RAM tax in full effect as vendors everywhere raise product costs by an eye watering amount in response to steep memory price increases imposed in consequence of Big Three decisions. That’s also why Apple has sought approval to use memory made by CXMT in products sold in China.
Industry estimates show CXMT and YMTC capacity rising sharply through 2028, with CXMT posting strong revenue and profit. They predict DRAM capacity at CXMT will increase from today’s 300,000 up to 600,000 wafer a month by Q4 28. YMTC’s NAND flash capacity will see similar growth.
They are basically accelerating production faster than competitors.
SemiAnalysis forecast CXMT’s first-quarter operating margin at about 70% and its full-year 2026 revenue at $50 billion and says it will become the third biggest global DRAM supplier by the end of the year. That’s good news for smartphone, computer, and tablet users outside American influence, I suppose.
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